Dems could rise in South

Republicans face a political calamity from which even Democrats might not save them. Virginia occupies a position in the northwest corner of a Southern swath stretching to Texas that since the age of Goldwater has been shaded deep red, but now appears within reach of the party of FDR. A Wall Street Journal story on the shift points to Newt Gingrich’s recent admonition: The Grand Old Party stares at the prospect of the “permanent minority status it had from 1930 to 1994.”

Bill Clinton, a Democratic hero tarnished principally by his refusal to go quietly into the night, provided a template for a Southern uprising. As president, he embraced in practice some essential conservative ideals, turning a budget deficit into a surplus, pushing through welfare reform and combating Senate spending excesses. He did not conform fully to the conservative paradigm - he mixed tax cuts with increases and opposed a partial birth abortion ban—but neither did he consider it anathema.

Southern Democrats similarly are turning toward the conservatism their forebears left behind.

Virginia’s Jim Webb, a former Republican and secretary of the Navy under Reagan, helped ignite the trend during his successful bid to unseat Sen. George Allen in 2006. Webb backs gun ownership, favors tighter immigration restrictions and advocates for a strong national defense, though he opposed war in Iraq. Like Clinton, he is no conservative but neither is he a leftist. Former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner, who has eclipsed Republican Jim Gilmore in the polls, almost certainly will join Webb in the Senate next year.

Walking in the footsteps of Clinton and Webb, Democrats such as Alabama congressional candidate Bobby Bright, whom the Journal describes as “a self-styled ‘Southern conservative,’” are eyeing a fall sweep. A Wall Street Journal-NBC poll last month was telling: Southern voters favored a Democratic majority in Congress by 44 percent to 40 percent.

What all of this tells us is that Democrats are beginning to understand what too many Republicans either forgot or never knew. Fiscal and social conservatism meshes with vintage American sentiment. Reagan famously lamented that the Democratic Party left him. It is, to an extent, turning back if not returning just as some Republicans stand frozen before the headlights.

Two Republicans of significance in this section of Virginia offer contrasts on this point.

Sixth District incumbent Bob Goodlatte looks to be headed for a ninth term. He faces Democrat Sam Rasoul, who talks of being an outsider and is likely to remain one. He favors typical liberal initiatives to redistribute wealth by limiting executive pay, bankrupt the treasury by passing a national health care plan and pursue the myth of a renewable energy revolution that would eliminate fossil fuels within 10 years. Goodlatte, whose conservative resume has chinks but none significant, backs the free market, recognizes the dangers of socialized health care and espouses expanded exploration and drilling to decrease American dependence on foreign oil.

John McCain, who is not from Virginia but hopes to carry it in the presidential election, is less sure of what he believes. He opposed offshore drilling before he was for it. He wants to offer a $300 million reward to anyone who can produce technology for the commercial development of plug-in cars, in keeping with leftist delusions about the impact of such an effort. He steers clear of a federally funded health care fix, but admits he does not quite know what to do about the economy.

Such uncertainties make the once impenetrable South vulnerable to a Democratic raid of Republican votes. Like Reagan, we plan to stay fixed to principles and let the parties leave as they please. Republicans who fail to do the former soon may hear their base answer with the shuffling of feet across the aisle.