Legacy is victim to circumstance

Forgive Gov. Timothy M. Kaine for stealing occasional glances at the exit signs inside the Executive Mansion in Richmond. Recent months have borne him all the kindness of a late-night mugging.

The series of unfortunate events began with last summer's furor over abusive driver fees and accelerated in the fall when the governor revealed that the commonwealth faced a $641 million budget shortfall just as he prepared to do the math on the only spending plan he will author while in office.

His legacy wobbling already, Kaine staggered into the year only to face withering legislative blows: lawmakers batted down his bids to ban smoking in restaurants and close a gun-show loophole that allows buyers to bypass background checks. Then they set their sights on pet projects, such as expanded pre-kindergarten programs and health care for the uninsured along with boosts in state money for foster parents.

Fellow Democrat, Richmond Mayor L. Douglas Wilder, a former governor himself, observed to The Washington Times that Kaine finds himself "in the awkward position of saying, 'We need to cut services, but I want to spend money.' " A Republican could not have been more to the point.

This week, on the heels of a Supreme Court decision striking down a $500 million transportation tax plan, Kaine has been, for the moment at least, a helpless onlooker while the House and Senate have clashed over the budget. Looming over the negotiations are dark economic clouds and projections that the deficit could stretch to $2 billion, in part fueled by the same overly optimistic revenue projections by Kaine's staff that helped produce this year's shortfall.

By the time lawmakers complete their whittling and wheeling and dealing, many of the initiatives Kaine campaigned on will be scarcely recognizable. Before even sending a plan to the General Assembly, the governor was forced by the unforgiving hand of economic reality to slash pre-K spending along with health care money.

As a result, the bright white horse upon which he'd planned to gallop into the sunset has been transformed into a faltering nag, burdened by the weight of a lame-duck governor and his collapsing legacy.

There is, to be sure, a lesson in all this, but it is one Democrats are loath to learn. Cheery campaign promises calling for expanded programs and, as a result, expanded government are subject not to good intentions and pure political ambition as much as they are to simple economics, which are considerably less exhilarating but far more determinative.

Kaine can be blamed neither for the nationwide housing collapse nor the malaise that has settled in its wake. But politicians who gamble on the notion that the economy will steadily hum in sync with their zest to spend are like a card player who insists on betting blind. Success is reduced to chance rather than skill. Their luck is bound to turn bad.

In Kaine's case, he's staring at a bum hand with nothing but junk cards in the deck. It's only March, but 2009 and the end of his term can't come soon enough.