Democrats scrambling to recover

RICHMOND — History told Virginia Democrats it wasn’t going to be easy.

For the past 32 years, the party that wins the White House has lost the governorship — a trend that often portends shifts in national politics.

However, this past Tuesday’s blowout has Democrats looking beyond cyclical inevitability to explain losses for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and perhaps six seats in the House of Delegates.

Democrats head into the next political cycle badly weakened, their bench virtually empty and the party groping to attract independents who decide elections in a state where the parties control roughly equal shares of the electorate.

The defeats marked the end of a win streak that dates to 2001 and includes two victories for governor, the take-back of both U.S. Senate seats, a slender majority in the Virginia Senate and President Barack Obama’s win in Virginia.

Setbacks in 2009, coming amid a steep decline in the economy, raise the stakes for 2010, when Democrats defend their 6-5 edge in Virginia’s U.S. House delegation.

Pundits consider two Democrats vulnerable: Tom Perriello of the Southside-anchored 5th District and Glenn Nye in Hampton Roads’ 2nd District.

“Trying to infer a fact pattern from the result of one election is a mistake,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Virginia operative who is now a regional spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Thomas M. Davis III, a former Republican congressman from Northern Virginia who once ran the GOP’s House campaign apparatus, is issuing a similar warning.

Davis wrote in U.S. News & World Report, “While there may be a desire to extrapolate the events of Nov. 3, 2009, into a prediction of what will happen on Nov. 2, 2010, that is impossible.

Democrats already are rethinking how they nominate candidates. State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath won the gubernatorial nomination in June, capping a bruising primary with former national Democratic chairman Terry McAuliffe and ex-Del. Brian J. Moran of Alexandria.

“I really think structurally with the primary, we put ourselves at least eight months behind in organization and $2 million or $3 million behind in fundraising,” said state Democratic Chairman C. Richard Cranwell.

Cranwell suggested that Democrats shift the primary from June to January to give the winner more time to replenish his treasury and the party an opportunity to bind its wounds.

McAuliffe and Moran are mentioned as potential future candidates as well as prospects for the state party chairmanship.

While Deeds emerged from the Democratic primary broke, Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, seeking a second term, had been running together since late 2008, husbanding dollars for the general election and rallying the grass roots.

Tuesday’s turnout - about 39 percent - was down from 45 percent in 2005 and magnified Republican voting strength. Not even Obama, in two appearances for Deeds, could mobilize voters for the nominee, who had been aloof with the president because of the recession.

That took its toll, cutting Deeds’ vote total from his squeaker loss in 2005 to McDonnell for attorney general. Four years ago, Deeds pulled 970,563 votes - about 194,000 more than he received leading the ticket on Tuesday.

The potent Republican vote contributed to House gains.

In Lynchburg, Democratic incumbent Shannon R. Valentine narrowly lost to T. Scott Garrett on the strength of returns from a single precinct - the one that includes Liberty University, founded by the late Rev. Jerry Falwell.

Former state Democratic Chairman Paul Goldman said this year’s candidates made a mistake trying to piggyback on the popularity and success of Gov. Mark R. Warner, now a U.S. senator, and departing Gov. Timothy M. Kaine.

“Elections are about solving problems, and therefore are by definition forward-looking,” Goldman wrote on the political blog Not Larry Sabato.

“Today’s circumstances are such that running on a theme ‘you owe us for keeping a good thing going’ is totally out of touch.”

Restoring Democrats’ standing with independents is key to a comeback.

Last year, they narrowly sided with Obama over Republican John McCain, 49 percent to 48 percent. According to exit polls, McDonnell pulled 62 percent of the independent vote, to 37 percent for Deeds.

“We have to scrutinize that carefully,” said Kaine, chairman of the Democratic National Committee - a post that may have contributed to voter perception Virginia Democrats are subordinating themselves to their more liberal national siblings.

“I don’t think either party can any longer take Virginia for granted.”

Jim Nolan and Jeff E. Schapiro are staff writers for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.