Sen. Deeds unable to secure Obama base

Democrat Creigh Deeds wrongly focused on social issues and lost to Republican Robert F. McDonnell in the race for governor in part because young, African-American and other voters who supported Barack Obama a year ago stayed home, a political expert said.

But the campaign promises McDonnell made to fix the economy, education and transportation may be tough to follow through on.

James Madison University political scientist Bob Roberts said McDonnell faces an uphill battle on his plans because of further state budget shortfalls.

“He has promised the farm,’’ Roberts said. “He has promised funding for higher education. If he has to cut the budget, the anger will turn on him.”

The shortfall of $1.35 billion in the state budget for the current fiscal year was announced by Gov. Timothy Kaine in September.

Further shortfalls are possible.

“He will spend the next two years cutting budgets not raising budgets,’’ said Quentin Kidd, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University.

Kidd said even if an economic recovery occurs, it will be slow and could take three years of McDonnell’s term to happen.

Del. Steve Landes, who earned an eighth term on Tuesday, expects to get a better read on the state budget shortfall in mid-November.

That’s when the House Appropriations Committee will hold a retreat.

Landes said collections for revenue sources like the state sales tax, corporate income tax and recordation tax have been down, contributing to the shortfalls.

If McDonnell can revive Virginia’s economy with job creation, it will add to the state’s coffers, Landes said.

“When you create jobs there is more income into people’s pockets and they pay income taxes,’’ Landes said.

As for McDonnell’s transportation plan, one funding source won’t happen, Roberts said.

He said the governor-elect lacks the General Assembly votes to sell and privatize Virginia’s ABC stores, and said if that occurred, McDonnell’s conservative base would be unhappy.

“Hardcore conservatives don’t want liquor stores on every corner,’’ he said.

Landes is anxious to see McDonnell’s plan for ABC privatization.

The delegate said a factor in whether the plan succeeds, is whether it has the support of the 20 new members of the House of Delegates who were selected on Tuesday.

Deeds’ campaign focus on social issues was wrong, Roberts said.

Social issues such as abortion and attacks on McDonnell’s conservative social beliefs don’t factor in a bad economy.

Deeds’ failure to energize voters shows in some post-election numbers.

An analysis released Wednesday by Public Policy Polling said that 36 percent of those who voted for Deeds “were not very excited’’ about their choice, whereas 61 percent of McDonnell’s voters were very excited.

The Democrat received the votes of hardcore Democrats such as those in the Northern Virginia communities of Arlington and Alexandria, Roberts said.

Missing Tuesday from last year’s Obama Virginia victory were African-American and young voters.

Their absence contributed to a dismal 42 percent statewide turnout of registered voters.

“Those who voted for Obama stayed home,’’ Roberts said. “The Democrats didn’t have issues.”

Kidd said it takes a special circumstance like last year’s presidential election to get African-American and young voters to participate.

The normal Virginia electorate is more middle class and more independent and not younger and not browner, Kidd said.

“Obama was young, fresh and a minority. Creigh Deeds was not young, fresh and and exciting,’’ Kidd said.

But there were other reasons voters did not turn out in great numbers Tuesday.

“We have too many elections in Virginia and it wears people out,’’ Roberts said.