Job one

Blitzing across Virginia over the weekend, Republican gubernatorial nominee Robert F. McDonnell is sounding a familiar theme: “New jobs, more opportunities: It starts now!”

Democrat R. Creigh Deeds also has pushed a jobs agenda, but as part of a mixed message that has failed to resonate with voters, analysts said.

The economy has surmounted every other issue and encompassed many of them in the 2009 gubernatorial campaign.

The two candidates have folded transportation, energy and education into their respective economic strategies.

But it is McDonnell who has defined himself as the candidate who would create jobs and revive the state economy, said Quentin Kidd, a Christopher Newport University political scientist.

“That is more than tactically brilliant, it is a brilliant message and campaigns are about messages,’’ Kidd said.

If McDonnell or Deeds follow through on their investment in education, they are banking on a safe bet, according to one expert.

McDonnell wants to add 100,000 college degrees over the next 15 years and Deeds 70,000 over the next decade.

Deeds also wants to create an energy-focused research triangle at four Virginia universities.

And Deeds said he sees a role for both public and private higher education institutions assisting in workforce development, research collaboration and addressing Virginia’s high-need areas.

Answering a questionnaire from the Council of Independent Colleges in Virginia, McDonnell said Virginia’s higher education institutions need to train more health care professionals and teachers in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math.

Education is one of the healthiest sectors of Virginia’s service-driven economy, said senior economist Bill Mezger of the Virginia Employment Commission.

Mezger said while Virginia’s manufacturing sector tumbled to a 60-year employment low over the summer, Virginia higher education enrollment continues to climb.

“The public and private colleges are an export business,’’ Mezger said, referring to out-of-state students coming to the Old Dominion.

The manufacturing downturn is evidenced particularly in Waynesboro, where Invista instituted mass layoffs earlier this year and Mohawk Industries recently announced it will shutter its plant in December.

Both McDonnell and Deeds agree that essential to recovering lost jobs such as those will be developing a better-trained Virginia workforce and greater enrollment and employment in college towns such as Harrisonburg and Charlottesville.

Viewing higher education as an economic catalyst started with former Gov. Mark Warner, now one of Virginia’s U.S. senators.

“Warner saw the colleges and universities as an economic stimulus and [Gov.] Tim Kaine saw the research possibilities and skill-based jobs they create,’’ Kidd said.

Higher education brings both soft and hard economic impacts, offering creative economic ideas and spawning new jobs, Kidd said.

“On the hard side if you have 100,000 people paying tuition and taking classes you have an economy that is relatively stable,’’ Kidd said.

Education’s financial impact is seen in Staunton, where Mary Baldwin College has an annual payroll of nearly $15 million and employs more than 300 people.

More than 800 students are enrolled at Mary Baldwin.

School spokeswoman Crista Cabe said the college’s presence in Staunton will remain steady with some growth.

The growth in the short-term is expected in a greater influx of graduate students to support programs with a newly aligned undergraduate program.

Beyond the hard numbers, Cabe said she sees Mary Baldwin students spending money in downtown Staunton and setting up housing if they are not living on campus.

Mezger said higher education and government will continue to provide stability to Virginia’s recovering economy.

He anticipates Virginia unemployment will start to drop in 2010.

“Barring any new disasters, the rates should gradually come down after the first quarter,’’ the economist said.

Still, while government and education offer a steady return during the current economic storm, Mezger said they are not enough.

“Things need to spill over into the private sector,’’ he said.

Worries about that happening are pivotal for swing voters, Kidd said. Jobs are a far bigger in swing voters’ minds than the social issues Deeds pushed after winning the Democratic primary.

McDonnell noticed, Kidd said. The result has been polls showing the Republican with a large lead.

“McDonnell has been very disciplined,” Kidd said, “and he knew what to run on early.”