Warner hits homestretch with big advantages

A double-digit lead by former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner heading into the final week of campaigning for one of Virginia’s U.S. Senate seats suggests Warner’s popularity and the problems within the Virginia Republican Party for Warner’s opponent, former Gov. Jim Gilmore.

Gilmore has had great difficulty raising money, and was not given any by the Republican National Committee, which he once headed.

According to Federal Election Commission reports, Warner has raised more than $18 million in 2008, compared with Gilmore’s less than $1.2 million.

“It’s impossible to run a creditable campaign,” James Madison University Political Scientist Bob Roberts said of Gilmore’s money woes. “He is dependent on free media, talk shows and newspapers.”

Del. Steve Landes, R-Weyers Cave, said the dismal poll numbers, which show Gilmore losing by 25 points, have not helped him in raising money.

“If you are not succeeding, it’s hard to compete,” Landes said.

Roberts said Gilmore could have hammered Warner more on fiscal issues, considering Virginia’s current budget shortfall.

Warner did shepherd a half-cent increase in the state sales tax in 2004, while Gilmore stuck to his promise to support the phasing out of Virginia’s car tax while he was governor.

But Roberts thinks Gilmore has missed on the issue of fiscal accountability.

“He didn’t come up with a consistent theme to the current situation,” Roberts said.

Landes said Gilmore kept his promise on the car tax while Warner “said he wouldn’t raise taxes and he does.”

Area Republicans don’t foster great hopes for Gilmore overcoming a difference that had Warner ahead 58 to 33 percent in this past week’s Richmond Times-Dispatch poll.

Republicans hope independent and undecided voters might look more closely at Warner.

And Republicans have some hope that Republican presidential nominee John McCain will still win Virginia and help Gilmore in the process.

“I’m convinced McCain will win in Virginia,” said Waynesboro Republican Committee Chairman Chris Darden. Darden said Warner is for big government, and has a more liberal record on social policies and tax policies.

But one area party chairman said the Republican Party’s issues within don’t help Gilmore.

“The Republican Party in Virginia and locally is in utter disarray,” said Staunton Democratic Committee Chairman Bob Dickerman.

Dickerman said the internal strife in the state GOP does not help McCain, Gilmore or Sen. Emmett Hanger, who had a difficult re-election battle a year ago because of Republican Primary opposition from businessman Scott Sayre.

Gilmore barely garnered 51 percent of the delegates at last spring’s state Democratic Convention, which also saw the ousting of state Party Chairman John Hager for the much younger Jeff Frederick.

Landes said the Virginia Republican Party must return to the bedrock values of limited government and lowered spending.

Should Warner win the Senate seat, and Democrat Barack Obama win the presidency, it could be rough sledding for Warner, according to Roberts.

Would Warner support the more liberal agenda favored by Obama?

“There are a whole series of issues that could put him in a very difficult position,” Roberts said. “There are social issues he has stayed away from that a more liberal Congress may try to deal with. Coming from a Southern state, he will face a difficult situation.”

Warner cancels visit

Scheduling issues have forced Virginia Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mark Warner to cancel a planned Monday visit to both Staunton and Waynesboro.
A Warner aide said the candidate hopes to reschedule his trip to the Shenandoah Valley for a later date.