Deeds gamble offering low payoff

Approaching Labor Day, when the gubernatorial campaign traditionally kicks into gear, a gambit by Democrat R. Creigh Deeds is raising eyebrows but not his sagging poll numbers.

The state senator from Bath County launched the push two weeks ago, seeking to shift the campaign discussion from jobs and transportation to Republican Robert F. McDonnell’s anti-abortion record.

The move went against the prevailing political wisdom that voters are more focused on the economy, and improving transportation and education. The early results bolster that view: McDonnell maintains a strong lead in the polls.

“I don’t think Virginians are in the mood to get energized by social issues,’’ said Christopher Newport University political scientist Quentin Kidd. “This is not the Virginia of the 1990s, when social issues drove elections and generally helped conservative candidates. It was a mistake for the Deeds campaign to go hard on social issues. You have to convince voters that McDonnell’s position on abortion is more threatening than the economy.”

Deeds’ aim is to slice into McDonnell’s strategy to build a bipartisan base with economic issues as a hinge. Instead, Deeds hopes to cast the former attorney general as an extremist who can’t deliver on his plans to spur job growth.

“This is a guy who has spent his career fighting divisive ideological battles,’’ Deeds’ press secretary Jared Leopold said of McDonnell. “It is hard to believe he will create jobs in Virginia.”

McDonnell submitted only two pieces of legislation on education and was patron or co-patron of 35 bills on restricting a woman’s right to choose during 14 years as a delegate, Leopold said.

“As governor, I will trust you to make your own decisions about your own lives,’’ Deeds told an audience of women in Annandale two weeks ago. “I believe it is up to a woman, her family, her doctor and her spiritual advisor to make this decision. My opponent believes government should make this decision.”

Abortion has not been a centerpiece of McDonnell’s record as either a Hampton Roads legislator or Virginia attorney general, McDonnell spokesman Tucker Martin contends. As a delegate, eight of 386 bills sponsored by McDonnell dealt with abortion, Martin said.

“Bob McDonnell is running to bring Virginians together during this difficult time,” Martin said. “Creigh Deeds, on the other hand, is trying to energize his unenthusiastic political base with old-time wedge politics meant to tear Virginians apart.”

Kidd said Deeds needs to engage McDonnell on the central issues of the campaign such as the economy, transportation, education and other core services. “Abortion is not one of those,’’ he said.

Still, Deeds’ tactic saddles McDonnell with a tricky task: how to continue pounding home his bipartisan message while not appearing to downplay a social issue important to a vital segment of his conservative base.

McDonnell “is pro-life, having learned the need to protect innocent human life growing up in a middle class Catholic family,” Martin said.

So far, McDonnell appears to be successfully maintaining his conservative base among pro-life groups.

“It confounds me to make this an issue whether in a campaign or anywhere,’’ said Dean Welty, director of the Valley Family Forum. “Where would one attack an individual for being pro-life.”

A spokesman for another conservative organization said social issues play a role in political campaigns.

“It is always important citizens know where the candidates stand on social issues. It is important they make it clear so voters can make a wise choice,’’ said Chris Freund of the Family Foundation of Virginia.

There is never an election where social issues don’t play a role, and social issues can be defining for some voters, Freund said.

This much is plain: Deeds’ strategy has not yet dented McDonnell’s lead. He surged to a 15-point lead in a poll by The Washington Post several days after launching his attack Aug. 10 on the abortion front.

With two and a half months left, the race still might be close, according to Sen. Emmett Hanger, R-Mount Solon.

“My sense of it is it will be close race,’’ Hanger said. “People are not paying close attention to the candidates. After Labor Day, people will focus when the candidates spend money they are raising.”

Hanger said McDonnell so far has done a good job of providing detailed solutions to problems, and if he continues to stay specific, “it will pay big dividends.”

On Friday, Deeds outlined a series of priorities in a speech at George Mason University, saying he will offer a tax credit for every job created, and 70,000 more degrees at colleges and universities over the next 10 years.

He promised to create a permanent Efficiency Improvement Office that will conduct performance reviews of every state agency.