Blue inroads in Valley

With Barack Obama’s historic win in the presidential race and Mark Warner’s U.S. Senate victory, Democrats made inroads Tuesday in the central Shenandoah Valley that, according to a Bridgewater College political scientist, have a chance to stick.

David McQuilkin, a Bridgewater College professor of history and political science, says Republicans need to be more pragmatic and less ideological. He said they also need an improving economy to regain control of the Senate.

Warner joins Sen. Jim Webb – who won in 2004 by less than 1 percent against Republican George Allen – to shut Republicans out of the Senate for the first time in 35 years. 

Because Webb – as a Blue Dog Democrat – and Warner have taken moderate stances on the issues, “it may be a while,” McQuilkin said, before Republicans regain a foothold in the U.S. Senate.

Usually, McQuilkin said, the Democrats take positions that are fiscally conservative and pro-gun rights, while steering clear of hot-button issues such as gay marriage and abortion.

“Conservatives are willing to tolerate moderates as long as they have something in common that they can identify with,” McQuilkin said.

In the 6th District, Democrat Sam Rasoul won just one precinct in the Augusta County region, but lost to Republican Bob Goodlatte, who totaled more than 60 percent of the vote district-wide.

Janet Rollings, 54, of Nelson County, who volunteered for the Waynesboro Democratic Committee, said, “It’s a new energy in the Valley.”

Mark Miller, 44, of Waynesboro, expressed excitement over a potential Obama win. He says the Shenandoah Valley is behind the times.

“They’re just a hundred years back,” Miller said. “Eventually, they’ll move into the rest of the world.”

Miller said it will take an influx of young people to change the region in favor of Democrats.

“A lot of the population’s the Old South in this area,” Miller said. “It’ll take young people to see the world in a new light.”

Warner, more moderate on issues than Webb, has been saying things that at least some conservatives can identify with, according to McQuilkin.

“As long as they stay within those boundaries, I think you’re going to find that they’re going to be successful over a number of years,” McQuilkin said.

Rasoul, while running a centrist campaign, needed to seek state and national Democratic Party funding, as well as political action committee money, to have a better chance of unseating Goodlatte, according to McQuilkin. Rasoul did not accept money from political action committees or the state Democratic Party.

“He’s going to have to alter his stance on raising money, or he’s not going to win,” McQuilkin said of Rasoul. “It takes money, in short, to make money.”

Waynesboro Democratic Committee Chairman Chris Graham, speaking last night before all the results had come in, said a Democratic sweep in Ward A is an example of what the future holds for the party’s support in the Valley. It shows, he said, “that there is something that we can build on here.”

Graham cited the outside support that 5th District Democrat Tom Perriello has received in his bid to unseat Republican Virgil Goode. Perriello received support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

“Money, unfortunately, is a part of this process,” Graham said. “I think what we can hope for here – and I haven’t seen the numbers – but if we can get somewhere in the 40s with Sam, I think what we do is say that this district is viable and we can compete again in 2010.”

McQuilkin said Rasoul came across well, but just hasn’t had the exposure.

McQuilkin and Graham agree that Democrats will have to stay fiscally conservative and socially moderate to have a chance in the Shenandoah Valley.

“You have to run more to the center, and Sam’s done that,” Graham said. “I hope it’s Sam in the future. But if not, it’s got to be somebody like Sam. It’s got to be somebody that’s a Blue Dog.”