Can the tea party last beyond November?

Nineteen months after crowds flowed into the Washington Mall to witness the inauguration of America’s first black president, that space again will be filled, this time by anti-spending legions.

Five buses from the Shenandoah Valley carrying local tea partiers are expected to make their way to the rally Saturday. The scene figures to offer a vivid picture of how far America has turned since President Barack Obama stood on the Capitol steps for the Oath of Office in January 2009.

Backers of the event, which is being billed as “Restoring Ho-nor” and is scheduled to feature Fox News star Glenn Beck and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, said millions of people are expected to show up, an indicator of the depth of public unease over rampant federal spending under Obama.

“There are far too many people at every level of government who don’t understand we don’t have any money,’’ said tea-party activist Suzanne Curran, of Shenandoah County. “Our voices are all we have.”

But a question hovers over the hand-painted signs, colonial costumes and raised voices: does the tea-party movement have staying power or will it eventually slip into oblivion with other one-hit political wonders, such as the one that fueled H. Ross Perot’s presidential candidacy in 1992?

A more apt comparison, said history professor Ted DeLaney, of Washington & Lee University, might be to the Reagan Revolution. Fueled by voters – including Democrats — embracing lower taxes and less spending, Republican Ronald Reagan soared into the White House in 1980.

“The tea-party movement is another example of a groundswell populist movement,’’ Washington & Lee University political professor William Connelly said.

Perot’s political rise is the closest comparison to the tea-party movement, Connelly said. He picked up 19 percent of the vote in ’92 running as an independent and might have gained a larger share had his quirkiness as a candidate not emerged, Connelly said.

More prominent movements, such as civil and women’s rights, were deeply rooted, DeLaney said.

George Allen, the ex-governor and U.S. senator and a Republican who could tap tea-partiers to help revive his political career, sees links.

The civil and women’s rights movements focused on access to freedom and basic rights, he said, and “the tea-party movement is an exercise of those rights. The tea parties benefit from women’s rights and civil rights.”

But sustaining the fervor will necessitate getting local, tea-party activists said.

The Shenandoah Valley Tea Party Patriots’ local membership is higher now than ever, a development that has unfolded as the group’s mission has evolved beyond protests of high federal spending to scrutiny of spending in Augusta County, Staunton and Waynesboro, activists said.

Still, national politics has been at the center of tea-partiers’ attention.

A research organization that tracks civic endeavors, the Sam Adams Alliance, said its research shows that the newest members of tea parties include people who have never been politically active before. The alliance said tea parties also include members who feel they have a responsibility to take action, fearing the type of country they would otherwise leave for future generations.

The movement was galvanized by a series of actions starting with the 2008 federal bailouts for financial institutions and the auto industry and climaxing with last spring’s health care reform passage.

As the movement has caught fire, with its influence apparently swelling in advance of the November congressional mid-term elections, tea partiers have become lightning rods, drawing charges of racism from the NAACP, among other groups. Attempts to demonize tea partiers are off point, Connelly said.

“The tea party may have some fringe elements, but it appears to be a lot of concerned citizens’’ who are exercising freedom of speech, the right to petition and other rights, Connelly said.

The growing emphasis on local politics have helped local tea-party chapters sustain their focus, said Jamie Radtke, president of the Richmond Tea Party and chairman of the Virginia Tea Party Federation.

Shenandoah Valley Tea Party Patriots Director Bruce Richmond said the local organization wants to look at local school districts and gain a better understanding of why they’re falling short of federal and state accountability standards.

“We want to look at the books of cities and counties and look for problems,’’ he said.

But it’s still unclear whether the movement can survive far beyond November. Populist movements frequently have been absorbed by either the Republican or Democratic parties.

Connelly said that is likely to happen again, with Republicans snaring the tea-party consituency.

Allen said that makes sense. Radtke was not so sure.

“People are just as nervous if the Republicans get in there,” Radtke said. “They are afraid they will act just like the Bush years. Neither party has proven to be trustworthy.”

Sam Adams Alliance Research Director Anne Sorock said her group’s work shows Radtke’s sentiment is widely held by tea partiers.

“It won’t be a fix to simply elect Republicans,’’ she said. “There is a sense that there is a Republican class, and that class is not listening to the
people.”