Tate: Iowans will warm to Mitt's gravitas

Never make predictions, especially about the future. — Casey Stengel

The year 2008 was a pretty good one for my political predictions. I accurately predicted that John McCain would win the Republican nomination, eventually emerging as the consensus candidate when pitted against Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

I even predicted when this would occur (right after the Florida primary). I even rooted for McCain to pick a then-unknown governor of Alaska named Sarah Palin. My colleagues from the Department of Homeland Security were pretty impressed with my prognosticating abilities. Of course, I was completely off on who would win the presidential election; my candidate was swept up in a tide of history. I can’t be right all the time, I suppose.

This year, however, my brain has been working in overtime. I can’t seem to get a handle on what’s going on in my party’s nomination process. There seems to be a new front-runner every few weeks — Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Larry, Moe, Curly — with the slow and steady Mitt Romney staying the course.

Which brings us to the Iowa caucuses to be held Tuesday. The past few weeks have seen three contenders battle for the top spot in the first-in-the-nation caucus (why it’s the first in the nation is a mystery, a ridiculous mystery). Newt Gingrich, coming off a surge in national polls, led the pack for a bit, and then libertarian Ron Paul took his place and presently Romney leads. Each candidate comes with his own strengths: Paul promises real change, Gingrich is the cerebral conservative and Mitt has the gravitas.

This has the potential to come down to the wire, but I’m willing to make this prediction: Romney wins. And not only does he win but also he wins by a large margin. The slow and steady candidate, like the tortoise, wins the race.

But why?

Well, Mitt commands a committed and devoted following, always polling in the 25 percent to 35 percent range: enough to comfortably take the Iowa caucuses in a crowded field of candidates.

Additionally, there’s the gravitas factor: Mitt comes across as the only grown-up in a room full of bomb-throwers and flakes. He’s polished and can competently explain every position he takes. And, finally, he’s now found a way to address his many flip-flops on important issues, sounding increasingly convincing on issues such as abortion and health care.

Ultimately, Iowans, including the most conservative of the evangelical bloc of voters there, will come around to Mitt, overlooking his moderate record as Massachusetts’ governor to help nominate a truly capable and gifted candidate to oppose President Obama.