Six more weeks?

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog who each year is the star of the show on Groundhog Day, predicted six more weeks of winter Thursday after “seeing his shadow” when he emerged from his hole.  

With temperatures exceeding 60 degrees in the Valley, however, it was anything but a winter wonderland, and there is no sign of wintry weather in the near future.

So is Punxsutawney Phil misleading us?

Weather experts believe there is still plenty of time for winter to make its arrival, yet they remain skeptical of a groundhog’s prognostication abilities.

“The whole thing is a nice little folklore that gets people thinking about the weather,” said Stan Ulanski, professor of meteorology at James Madison University. “But if you look at the percentage of times he’s right versus wrong, it’s about the same as flipping a coin. From a meteorological standpoint, we don’t put much stock into it.”

Jerry Stenger, director of the University of Virginia Climatology Office, has several reasons for questioning the validity of Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction. He noted that the Pennsylvania groundhog’s verdict does not necessarily serve the entire country, or even the entire East Coast, saying “it doesn’t mean that Virginia groundhogs are seeing their shadows,” and he added that the surrounding conditions of his big moment are a major factor.

“I suspect there are plenty of TV lights all over the place,” Stenger said. “So it would be hard for him not to see his shadow.”

Stenger, however, was quick to point out that March is typically the snowiest month for most of Virginia, followed closely by February.

“We still have plenty of winter from a climatical perspective,” he said, “so perhaps Punxsutawney Phil is a very good climatologist.”

Ulanski said the recent weather pattern is related to the jet stream, which has prevented the cold arctic air to the north from heading south. While the extended forecast shows more of the same warm weather ahead, he added that it is extremely difficult to predict if the pattern is going to change, and he agreed with Stenger’s observation that winter eventually will come around.

He also noted that while the Old Dominion has experienced a very mild winter thus far, other parts of the country have not, including Alaska, which is having one of its harshest winters ever.

Ulanski has lived in the Shenandoah Valley for 30 years, and he called this winter the mildest he has seen.

“I’m not a fan of cold weather at all,” he said. “The students in my class like it because they’re looking for a snow day, but I don’t like shoveling it.”